Since the discovery of the Groningen gas field in the 1960s, extraction from this vast natural gas reservoir has played a crucial role in the Netherlands’ energy supply. However, prolonged gas extraction has had unexpected consequences: earthquakes that threaten the region’s safety. In an area where seismic activity or major geological changes were previously uncommon, gas extraction has altered the landscape. This has raised concerns about safety and underscored the need for a better understanding and prediction of earthquakes.
Identifying Patterns
Through her research at CWI, Zhuldyzay Baki has developed a method to better monitor and more accurately predict these earthquakes in the future. By integrating statistical models with geological data—such as earthquake measurements, gas production levels, and underground pressure changes—she has identified patterns in seismic activity that help assess the risk of future tremors. This combined approach has significantly improved the accuracy of predictions.
One of the key findings of the study is the strong correlation between underground pressure reduction due to gas extraction and the location and intensity of earthquakes. Areas experiencing the greatest pressure decline show the highest levels of seismic activity. Thanks to advanced statistical models, it is now possible to make better estimates of where and when new earthquakes may occur, ultimately enhancing regional safety.
DeepNL
The research is part of the DeepNL programme, an initiative by the Dutch Research Council (NWO) aimed at improving the understanding of deep subsurface dynamics, particularly in regions where human activities, such as gas extraction, impact the underground environment. DeepNL is a long-term project based on recommendations from the Dutch Safety Board and is partly funded by the Nederlandse Aardolie Maatschappij (NAM). The research is conducted according to NWO’s strict quality standards, with NAM having no influence over the decision-making or content of the programme.
About the Dissertation
- Title: Comprehensive monitoring and prediction of seismicity within the Groningen gas field using large-scale field observations. Zhuldyzay Baki, 11 March 2025
- Supervisor: Prof. Marie-Colette van Lieshout (CWI/UT)
- Co-supervisor: Dr. Matthias Schlottbom (UT)
